Oscar 2026, from the possible first win of a Black director to Brazilian triumph: everything that could happen in this edition

From the first win by an African American director to the Brazilian double and the anticipated triumph of one of the most influential authors in recent years, there are several records and curiosities that could occur at the 2026 Academy Awards, scheduled for March 15. Cinematografo.it has highlighted ten, all deserving of attention.

1) The first time for a Black director

In ninety-eight editions, there have only been seven Black directors nominated for the Oscar for Best Director. The first was John Singleton, who at twenty-four was also the youngest nominee in the history of the category (Boyz n the Hood, 1991). Spike Lee, the most influential and authoritative of African American filmmakers, has only been nominated with BlacKkKlansman (2019), three years after receiving the lifetime achievement award. Ryan Coogler, nominated this year for The sinners, could become the first Black director to win in the category. He could potentially be the second to triumph for Best Picture after Steve McQueen, director and producer of 12 Years a Slave (2013). Coogler had already been nominated as a producer for Judas and the Black Messiah (2020).

2) The sinners in history
The sixteen nominations earned by The sinners, a record in Academy history, could turn into some historic wins. Zinzi Coogler, Ryan's wife, could become the first African American woman to win for Best Picture.

The Afro-descendant Autumn Durald Arkapaw is in the running to become the first cinematographer to win overall. The statuette to Michael B. Jordan would be the fifth awarded to a Black lead actor after Sidney Poitier (Lilies of the Field, 1963), Denzel Washington (Training Day, 2001), Jamie Foxx (Ray, 2004), Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland, 2006), and Will Smith (King Richard, 2021), as well as the first ever to win for playing two roles in the same film (two twins; but his rival Wagner Moura also has two parts in The Secret Agent, although one of them has significantly less screen time). Additionally, The sinners could be the first horror film to win Best Picture.

3) Brazilians Conquering the Academy
After Fernanda Montenegro (Central do Brasil, 1998) and Fernanda Torres (I Am Still Here, 2024), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) is the third Brazilian person nominated for an acting performance. If he wins, he would not only be the first Brazilian performer awarded in history, but also the second leading actor awarded for a performance entirely not in English after Roberto Benigni (Life is Beautiful, 1998) and the eighth overall considering all categories for best performances (and, as we have seen, the first with a dual role, in this case father and son). Moura's could be the second statuette ever awarded to a Latin American leading actor (the first was Puerto Rican José Ferrer, Cyrano de Bergerac in 1950) and the sixth considering all categories for acting, the second to a Brazilian after Walter Salles, director of I Am Still Here, who triumphed a year ago as best international film. There is another Brazilian in the running: Adolpho Veloso, nominated for best cinematography for Train Dreams.

4) The Year of International Performers
This year's Oscars have set a record with four performances primarily spoken not in English: in addition to Moura, there are Norwegians Renate Reinsve and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Swede Stellan Skarsgård who in Sentimental Value also have some lines in English. Reinsve could become the fifth non-Anglo performer to win among the leading actresses after Italians Anna Magnani (The Rose Tattoo, 1956) and Sophia Loren (Two Women, 1962), French Simone Signoret (Room at the Top, 1960) and Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose, 2008) and Malaysian Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once, 2023). Lilleaas would be the fourth non-Anglo winner with a role predominantly not in English after Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona, 2009), Youn Yuh-jung (Minari, 2020) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez, 2024). Skarsgård, at his first nomination at 74 years old, could be the first supporting actor to win in a role spoken mostly in a non-English language.

5) Another record for Brazil
This year The Secret Agent by Kleber Mendonça Filho (also in the running for Best Picture) is competing for Best International Film: if it wins, it would be the first time a country has won the award for two consecutive years after the double wins of France (My Uncle in 1958 and Black Orpheus in 1959; The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie in 1972 and Day for Night in 1973; Madame Rosa in 1977 and The Last Metro in 1978), Sweden (The Virgin Spring in 1960 and Through a Glass Darkly in 1961), Italy (8½ in 1963 and Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow in 1964; Investigation of a Citizen Above Suspicion in 1970 and The Garden of the Finzi-Continis in 1971) and Denmark (Babette's Feast in 1987 and Pelle the Conqueror in 1988).

6) The first casting award
This year there is a new statuette to be awarded: that for Best Casting, the first category added since 2001 (the one for Best Animated Feature). The establishment of the award was unsuccessfully proposed in 1999. The nominees were determined by the Academy branch dedicated to casting directors. Whoever wins will be in Oscar history: competing are Hamnet (the idea of brothers Jupe, Jacobi and Noah, in the roles of young Hamnet and the actor playing Hamlet, is crucial and moving), One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent and The Sinners (all chosen for the expressive richness of the many supporting characters). In 2028 we will also have the statuette for Best Stunt Design.

7) The first female director to win twice
The Chinese Chloé Zhao, winner of the Oscar for Best Director in 2020 with Nomadland, is not only the second woman in history to triumph in that category (and the third overall: after her, only Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog) but also the first non-American director and the third Asian person after Taiwanese Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain in 2005 and Life of Pi in 2012) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite in 2019), and this year she is also the first woman to receive a second nomination in her career for Best Director for Hamnet.

8) Amy Madigan and longevity: Amy Madigan, the memorable villain from Weapons, has received her second nomination in her career forty years after the first (Twice in a Lifetime). She does not break the record of Robert De Niro, who earned his last nomination (Killers of the Flower Moon, 2023) a remarkable forty-eight years after his first (winner: The Godfather Part II, 1975), but she ranks second among women: only the eternal Katharine Hepburn has done better, with forty-seven years between Morning Glory (first statuette in 1934) and On Golden Pond (fourth win and twelfth nomination in 1982). However, in Madigan's case, it would still be a first win.

9) Try Again, Diane Warren: 17. It is 17 times - the ninth consecutive - that the prolific songwriter has ended up in the shortlist for Best Song. More than a testament of esteem, it seems like a fixation, considering that, at the moment, her winning is unthinkable. Moreover, with a film about… Diane Warren! Written and composed by herself, the song Dear Me is indeed in the soundtrack of the documentary Diane Warren: Relentless. Nevertheless, the Academy has already awarded her with a Lifetime Achievement Oscar in 2023.

10) Paul Thomas Anderson's First Time: The perhaps most influential and important American author of his generation has never won an Oscar. Nominated eleven times since 1998, five times for screenwriting, three as both director and producer, this year he could go home with three statuettes for One Battle After Another, being in the running for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. Will he make it? Martin Scorsese, who suffered greatly before being awarded by the Academy, succeeded after twenty-six years (but Taxi Driver was in the running for Best Picture as early as 1976, thirty-one years before the win for The Departed): the potential triumph of PTA would come twenty-seven years after his first nomination.