Oil shock, Italy taps into reserves and "releases" 9.9 million barrels: but will it be enough to stop the price surge?

March 11, 2026 will go down in history as the date of the largest release of oil reserves onto the market ever authorized. To curb the surge in prices and the supply shock triggered by the war in Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency, with the explicit support of the G7 ministers, has authorized the release of up to 400 million barrels. An exceptional measure, more than double the reserves released in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, described by IEA director Fatih Birol as a “unprecedented collective action”.

But how does this mechanism work in our country and how protected are we really in case of escalation? The Italian “safety net” is based on a legal obligation: in accordance with a European Directive from 2009 and a Legislative Decree from 2012, Italy must maintain oil reserves equal to the greater of 90 days of net imports and 61 days of domestic consumption. This “distributed safe”, managed partly by economic operators and partly by the Italian Central Storage Organization (OCSIT) under the supervision of the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security (MASE), constitutes the true national safety buffer. Our country will release 9.9 million barrels. 

As confirmed by recent ministerial decrees regarding the 2025 and 2026 stock years, strategic stocks are not composed exclusively of crude oil. A significant portion concerns finished products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. A crucial choice: it allows for almost real-time fulfillment of the needs of the most sensitive sectors of the economy, starting with transportation, without having to immediately account for the time and technical constraints of refining.

Having barrels in tanks, however, is only half the equation. The real test lies in transforming and distributing them capillary. Italy has a network of strategic plants — including Sarroch, Milazzo, Priolo, Sannazzaro, and Taranto — but refining capacity is under pressure. An alarm raised by ENEA in 2024 indicated a decline in the average utilization rate, a warning not to underestimate the crucial role of logistics: ports and pipelines remain pillars of energy security.

On the price front, the first weeks of March 2026 recorded a strong volatility at the pump, with rapid increases in diesel and gasoline fueled by geopolitical fears. The massive release of 400 million barrels aims to cool bullish expectations, but analysts and markets warn: it is a "bridge" useful for buying time, not a structural cure. In terms of flows, those volumes are equivalent to a few weeks of exports from the Persian Gulf.

While relying on a solid regulatory framework and a high-level public-private hybrid model, Italy — which in 2025 consumed over 56 million tons of petroleum products — remains exposed to objective vulnerabilities. Just think that if each barrel is just under 160 liters, 9.9 million barrels equate to about 1.5 million tons (and thus just under 3% of the national annual requirement).

The historical dependence on delicate maritime routes, such as Hormuz and the Eastern Mediterranean, makes the real economy particularly sensitive to shocks. The coordinated move by the IEA and G7 thus serves, to a large extent, to manage the psychological dimension of the markets, preventing waves of panic or sudden rationing. But if supply chains were to get stuck for a long time, the efficiency and resilience of this emergency machine would be tested like never before.