Fitch confirms Italy at BBB+: financial stability, but low growth remains the Achilles' heel

On March 13, 2026, the market desks did not register any jolts or sudden spikes in yields. Fitch Ratings has indeed confirmed Italy's sovereign rating at "BBB+" with a "stable" outlook.

A decision devoid of clamor, but significant for the stability of the system: it certifies full membership in the "investment grade" category and consolidates the upgrade received in autumn 2025, achieved thanks to increased confidence in the public finance trajectory. In its assessment, the agency highlights a balance between structural strengths and historical vulnerabilities.

On one hand, the Italian economy is described as "broad, diversified, and high value-added". The membership in the European Union and the Eurozone, high per capita wealth levels, and governance indicators considered relatively solid also weigh positively.

On the opposite side, public debt remains the main factor of vulnerability, compressing budget flexibility and the government's capacity to intervene.

According to projections, the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach a peak of around 137.8% in 2026 (137.9% in the European Commission's estimates), before beginning a gradual decline from 2027. This virtuous path is contingent upon maintaining sustained primary surpluses and the fading of temporary accounting effects related to Superbonus tax credits.

However, the real Achilles' heel remains growth. The forecasts outline a pace that is too modest: Brussels estimates a GDP increase of 0.4% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, below the EU average. Unfavorable demographics, low productivity, and prudent private investments continue to hinder the country's ability to consistently exceed 1% expansion.

This is also why Fitch's outlook is "stable" and not "positive": without an increase in potential growth, Italy remains exposed to the risk that external shocks could compromise the progress made on debt.

The confirmation of the rating still brings tangible benefits to the financial ecosystem. For the Treasury, it means being able to proceed with an ordered auction calendar, strengthening the confidence of international investors and contributing to stabilizing spreads. Italian banks benefit from a more manageable risk profile on government bonds in their portfolios, with open funding channels and preserved asset quality. For companies, finally, a country perceived as stable translates into lower funding costs and greater predictability: essential conditions for planning long-term investments, especially in infrastructure and energy transition.