The price of gas is skyrocketing and now the cold is coming too: the war is hitting the pockets of Italians.

Milano, 14 marzo — A new threat looms over the gas prices. After two weeks of conflict in Iran, a cold wave is approaching that could trigger further increases, following the jump of 57.11% recorded by the TTF in Amsterdam since the end of February.

This is reported by BloombergNEF analysts, specialized in energy, transport, industry, construction, and agriculture, who predict a worsening climate in Western Central Europe.

“The forecasts from March 11 — they observe — indicated a significant drop in temperature in the latter part of the month, and the latest updates reaffirm this, as the signs of the cold's arrival have not disappeared, confirming the severity of the wave.

Consequently, they warn, “the drop in temperatures could raise the demand for heating at the end of the season, pushing prices up in case there is a lower production of renewables.”

Renewable sources remain closely linked to weather conditions: with overcast skies, photovoltaic production slows down, and in the absence of wind, wind energy stops, as happened in Germany during the ‘dark calm’ (dunkelflaute) of last summer.

At that time, to compensate for the lack of sun and wind, Berlin had to draw early from storage, reducing reserves. Today, Germany, traditionally among the European countries with the highest volumes in storage, is at 21.93% (55.08 TWh), compared to an EU average of 29.11% (332.58 TWh).

Italy leads the ranking with 45% (91.53 TWh), holding almost a third of the continent's total stocks.

After the recent spike, the market took a breather on Friday: in Amsterdam, gas fell by 1.48% to 50.12 euros/MWh, after the peak of 64 euros on March 9, a level not seen since 2022.

Operators remain on the lookout for developments in the Strait of Hormuz, monitored by the Iranian Pasdaran who hinder the transit of ships towards the Mediterranean.

Through that maritime corridor passes 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, a crucial component for the gradual replacement of Russian methane in Europe over the four years of war in Ukraine.

To counterbalance the tensions, the recent agreement between Eni and Repsol with the state company Petróleos de Venezuela to increase the capacity of the deep offshore field Cardón IV could contribute.

The top priority is to ensure supply for the domestic market, but Eni emphasizes that there is also the possibility of "identifying solutions for the export of natural gas and liquids".

All of this is "subject to obtaining the necessary legal and regulatory approvals", allowing Venezuela to "strengthen its position as a potential regional exporter".

The Six-Legged Dog also intends to "evaluate this important opportunity" leveraging the experience gained in large offshore gas liquefaction projects successfully developed in various countries around the world.

(by Paolo Verdura)