US sanctions on Russian oil in the balance as the Middle East burns: Italy between rising costs and hopes

Imagine a world where American sanctions on Russian oil are eased just as missiles and drones ignite the Middle East: this is the scenario that is materializing today, with the United States ready to grant further exemptions

to avoid a global energy crisis. The Treasury Secretary

Scott Bessent

opened this door in an interview with Fox Business, announcing that Washington could lift restrictions on other supplies of Russian crude oil after Thursday's decision to allow Indian refineries to purchase oil already stored on ships, with a

30-day exemption

. "The Treasury has agreed to allow our allies in

India

to start buying the Russian oil already available," Bessent explained, emphasizing how this move serves to fill a temporary global crude shortage. And it doesn't stop there: "We could lift sanctions on other Russian oil," he added, revealing that

hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels

are sailing in open waters, ready to become a supply valve if the Treasury decides to act.

This American flexibility comes at a time of extreme tension, with U.S. crude hitting highs not seen since 2023, recording a record increase of 35% in just one week on futures, driven by the flames of war in the Middle East. For Europe, and particularly for Italy, this means energy bills under pressure and pump prices that could exceed 2 euros per liter in the coming weeks. India, a major buyer of low-cost Russian crude, breathes easier thanks to this exemption, but it raises questions about what will happen to energy flows post-EU sanctions: a normalization that Moscow has long awaited, while Rome and Brussels watch with a mix of relief and concern.

In the heart of this storm, Israel has raised the stakes by launching large-scale attacks against government targets in Tehran, as announced by the IDF shortly after intercepting a new launch of Iranian missiles aimed at its territory. The Iranian state broadcaster confirmed an explosion in the western part of the capital, a sign of an escalation that threatens the Gulf oil routes and amplifies global fears. It's not just Tehran: in southern Iraq, a drone has struck for the second time today at the Burjesia oil facility, which hosts foreign energy companies, evading defenses after two other aircraft had been shot down. Iraqi security sources report significant damage, while in Baghdad a similar attack targeted the airport complex, home to military bases and American diplomacy, with drones followed by missiles that sparked a fire and sent ambulances to the scene.

These strikes, intertwined with the shadows of regional war, reduce production capacity in key areas for exports to Europe, fueling the upward price surge. U.S. crude, sensitive to every geopolitical tremor, reflects a volatility that traders and analysts haven't seen in years: a skyrocketing barrel foreshadows persistent energy inflation, with ripple effects on industry, transport, and Italian households. Yet, the possible lifting of sanctions on Russia could balance the scales, creating extra supply from the east while the Middle East burns.

For Italy and the EU, dependent on alternative Russian imports, 2026 looks unpredictable: on one hand, more low-cost crude from Moscow; on the other, risks of shortages from Iran and Iraq that keep markets on edge. Bessent is right to consider this option – hundreds of millions of barrels in open water are a concrete opportunity – but peace remains distant, and with it, price stability. We will monitor developments: a quick decision from the Treasury could calm futures by the end of March, but for now the war dictates the price of oil. What will it mean for our wallets? The answer will come soon, amid diplomacy and drones.