Hormuz: Teheran warns US and Israeli ships. Fears over supplies push urea up by 30%

Iran has issued a stern warning to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, declaring it open except for ships linked to the United States and Israel, which will be considered military targets. Although Tehran has ruled out a total naval blockade, the statement has raised growing concerns about the stability of global supply chains, with immediate repercussions extending beyond the energy sector to impact agricultural markets.

The Iranian government's position was outlined by Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for the armed forces. "We control the Strait of Hormuz, but we will not close it and all ships will be able to transit it," Shekarchi stated. However, he added a clarification that significantly alters the regional security landscape: Iranian forces will target U.S. and Israeli vessels.

Regarding international commercial traffic, the spokesman emphasized that Iran will not provide any security guarantees. "If they were to cross the Strait, the responsibility for any incident will be theirs, due to the state of war," he concluded, effectively shifting the risk onto shipowners and flag states.

While international attention tends to focus on oil and gas supplies, tensions in the Middle East are already exerting strong upward pressure on fertilizer prices.

The Persian Gulf is a critical hub for global agricultural production. Nations like Qatar and Iran are responsible for about 45% of the global urea supply, a key fertilizer derived from processing natural gas.

The market reaction has been swift. In recent days, international urea prices have surged by an estimated 30%, reaching a peak of $600 per ton.

Industry analysts warn that a prolonged disruption of maritime transit through Hormuz, coupled with rising prices, would present serious challenges for global food security. The most severe consequences would be felt by emerging economies with a high dependence on fertilizer imports. Brazil and India, in particular, rank among the most vulnerable nations to potential shortages, with the risk of a contraction in agricultural yields and a consequent increase in global food inflation in the coming months.