The cost of war for families: a wave of price increases up to 360 euros a year on electricity, gas, gasoline, and heating

The Strait of Hormuz has once again become the most vulnerable link in the global economy, due to the escalation between Iran and the US-Israel axis.

About 20% of global oil trade and a similar share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through this maritime route, making it the most crucial "chokepoint" for hydrocarbons.

A total blockade, or even a significant contraction of flows, would quickly turn a geopolitical crisis into a genuine international energy shock. In the worst-case scenario, the paralysis of the corridor could immediately remove 15-20% of supply from the market. Several investment banks estimate that if the disruption were to continue, crude oil prices could soar by up to +30%, reaching the range of 120-130 dollars per barrel.

For Italian families, the effects are already tangible. According to estimates released by Nomisma Energia in early March 2026, starting from April 1st, increases of about +15% for gas and a rise between +8% and +10% for electricity are expected in the second quarter.

Simulations by Facile.it quantify the average annual extra cost at 166 euros in the baseline scenario. If the interruptions were to persist, conservative estimates from associations like Codacons indicate possible overall increases between +210 and +380 euros per year for a typical family.

For fuels, the transmission of increases is even faster. Between late February and early March 2026, data from MIMIT shows average increases of +9.2 cents per liter for gasoline (up to 1.76 €/l) and +18.9 cents for diesel (at 1.91 €/l).

This sharp reversal reflects the immediate repricing of geopolitical risk. The shockwave is not limited to energy: it threatens to disrupt the entire global logistics chain. Insurance companies have raised premiums for “war risk”, demanding rates up to three times higher for ships with ties to the USA, UK, or Israel. In fact, for many shipowners, the Strait of Hormuz is already “de facto” closed for security reasons.

As seen with the recent crises in the Red Sea, alternative routes extend times and distances, multiply transportation costs, compress profit margins, and reignite inflationary pressures.

All of this risks overturning the picture of Italian inflation, previously expected to drop to 1.4-1.9% by 2026. Price increases will spread to goods, services, and, in particular, to food products. A third of the trade in fertilizer inputs passes through areas that are now exposed to risk: any shortages would drive up agricultural costs, with effects likely to manifest on the supermarket receipt.

To contain the impact, the government can activate fiscal and community levers and strengthen oversight against speculation. Citizens, for their part, can consider fixed-rate energy tariffs, optimize consumption by keeping the thermostat at 19-20 °C, and save up to 100 euros a year by systematically comparing fuel prices before refueling through dedicated apps.