Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, but no one has the courage to tempt fate: the blame is not (only) on the drones

In recent hours, Tehran has announced to the world a long-awaited turning point: the reopening, albeit partial, of the Strait of Hormuz. In reality, however, the planet's most sensitive maritime passage remains a nearly deserted corridor.

In the hours following the announcement, only two or three ships have had the courage to cross it, as confirmed by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. Traffic is effectively blocked, with a collapse of up to 70% compared to an ordinary average of about 175 transits per day.

Why does a waterway formally declared navigable remain empty? The distinction is not so much political as it is financial and related to safety.

According to industry operators, access to war risk coverage is the real enabling condition between departure and forced standstill. International insurers and P&I Clubs have raised premiums to prohibitive levels or completely withdrawn policies, making transit legally and economically impractical for shipowners, regardless of the “green light” from Tehran.

On top of this, there are dangers on the ground: reports of GPS interference, missile and drone threats, with a heightened alert level across the entire Persian Gulf up to Bab el-Mandeb.

Even the proposal from Washington to offer public guarantees and naval escorts to tankers struggles to convince commanders in the absence of certified safe corridors.

The consequences on global energy are immediate. This wide funnel between 13 and 34 kilometers historically channels about 20% of the oil transported by sea and 19% of global LNG.

The “practical” paralysis of Hormuz has caused prices to soar: in Europe, gas has jumped over 40% in just a few hours, also due to the production halt by QatarEnergy.

Crude is racing towards the psychological threshold of 100 dollars per barrel, effectively making the additional supply from OPEC+ and a good part of the spare capacity inaccessible.

If the stalemate, disguised as a reopening, were to prolong, Middle Eastern producers might be forced to reduce output due to saturation of storage.

In Italy, the effect was immediate, as a significant share of imported diesel and jet fuel passes through Hormuz. In the first week of March 2026, the data indicates a +19.24% for crude oil and a +49.20% for refined diesel.

As of March 6, average pump prices reached 1.76 €/l for gasoline and 1.91 €/l for diesel, with weekly increases of nearly 19 cents. The impact on electricity has also been heavy: the National Single Price surged to 165 €/MWh from 107 the previous week. To contain the effects, Palazzo Chigi has implemented two measures. Minister Adolfo Urso ordered comprehensive checks by the Guardia di Finanza throughout the supply chain to curb speculation and “anxiety surcharges.”

At the same time, the Council of Ministers approved a bill decree of over 5 billion euros, with a gas release at controlled prices for businesses and bonuses up to 315 euros for vulnerable families.

The opposition, led by Elly Schlein along with M5S and AVS, is calling for an immediate diplomatic de-escalation and a cut in excise duties financed by the extra VAT revenue. The situation confirms an uncomfortable truth: in global trade, a political announcement is not enough to restart flows if the insurance market and security conditions do not provide the true pass.