Expensive fuel, how it works and what changes with the mechanism of 'mobile excise': how much you save at the pump

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, now extended to Iran, is immediately reflected in the fuel prices in Italy.

In the first week of March 2026, the surge in international prices has transferred to pump prices, significantly impacting diesel.

With diesel on the highway nearing 2.50 €/l at service stations, the Government is ready to reopen a crucial dossier: that of mobile excise duties.

The snapshot of the network (March 2-8) is clear: on the ordinary network in self-service mode, gasoline is priced between 1.67 and 1.70 €/l, while diesel fluctuates between 1.73 and 1.85 €/l.

The dispersion of prices across the territory remains wide; on highways and at service stations, gasoline exceeds 2.20-2.30 €/l and diesel reaches peaks of 2.35-2.50 €/l.

This emergency phase has prompted opposition parties and consumer associations to request corrections in the range of 10-20 cents, while the Executive has intensified checks by the Guardia di Finanza to counter any speculation along the supply chain.

The solution currently under consideration by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) is the activation of the mobile excise, a tax mechanism introduced in 2008 and updated with the “Fuel Transparency” decree (D.L. 5/2023).

The principle is straightforward: if the increase in international prices generates an VAT revenue higher than the estimates in the DEF, the State can use this “extra revenue” to reduce excise rates through a specific ministerial decree.

Circulating estimates indicate a possible targeted cut of 4-5 cents per liter. For families and commuters, the benefit would amount to about 2-2.5 euros on a full tank of 50 liters. A relief designed as a “lifeline” to contain the erosion of purchasing power, in compliance with the public finance constraints set by the 2026 maneuver.

All of this fits into a profoundly changed fiscal framework: from January 1, 2026, Italy has realigned the excise duties on gasoline and diesel to 0.6729 €/l, with the environmental goal of eliminating the historical advantage of diesel.

The measure has already resulted at the beginning of the year in a drop of 4.9 cents on gasoline and a rise of 5 cents on diesel. Today, it is the diesel that is the most exposed product: between unified excise duties and market shocks (due to European demand and seasonality), in extreme scenarios the potential impact of the increases approaches 35 cents per liter.

On the Government's table, there are three operational options for the application of the mobile excise duty. The first involves a “flash” cut of 4-5 cents for 60-90 days, useful for cooling the inertia of prices but vulnerable to new spikes in crude oil that could erode its effects in a few days. The second hypothesizes a modular intervention aimed at protecting diesel, which has become vital for light logistics and private users. The third would read the cut rigidly at the thresholds of the DEF: it would ensure greater transparency and credibility on the fiscal front, but could extend the reaction times to sudden shocks in the oil market.