Hormuz, the US bases, and the "diffused" war: what Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first speech as Supreme Leader

Less than two weeks after the start of the conflict — which erupted on February 28, 2026 with the joint raids of the United States and Israel that led to the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — the successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, conveys a tone of clear warning in his first message to the world. He does not appear in public nor deliver a speech: the text is read by an anchor from Iranian state television, a choice that emphasizes its formal and controlled nature.

Planned absence and “media saturation”
The lack of images or audio of the fifty-six-year-old leader, international sources and Israeli analyses explain, could reflect injuries sustained by Mojtaba during the initial bombings that hit his family. His invisibility thus becomes a deliberate strategy of maximum personal protection and communication: a “media saturation” in which the substance and the seriousness of the threats matter more than physical presence.

Hormuz as a global leverage for blackmail
The heart of the message is the Strait of Hormuz, transformed into a “pressure lever” in geopolitical terms. About one-fifth of the world's crude oil passes through this bottleneck; even the mere hypothesis of a blockade, or a semi-blockade, has already pushed the price of oil above 100 dollars per barrel, destabilizing the markets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are operationalizing the threat with asymmetric actions: selective mining, aggressive patrolling, demonstrative attacks on energy terminals, and the imposition of a sort of “Iranian permit for passage”, making navigation uncertain and more costly.

The declared objective is to make Hormuz a global psychological and economic switch to force a ceasefire on Tehran's terms.

Ultimatum to Gulf Countries: “close the American bases”
Alongside maritime blackmail, Mojtaba Khamenei issues an ultimatum to the Gulf governments — Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq — urging them to “close the American bases”. Those installations, from which raids against Iran would have been launched or coordinated, will become “legitimate” targets, he warns, while the protection offered by Washington would be “a lie”. This move fits into a “mosaic” escalation, designed to shift the risks and costs of war onto neighboring Arabs. The leader's words act as rhetorical detonators, intending to fuel internal debate and anti-American sentiment, pushing regional partners to pressure Washington.

Widespread war and energy infrastructure in the crosshairs
The “chaos strategy” outlined by Tehran extends the list of potential targets to vital civilian infrastructure. Oil ports, refineries, gas hubs, and desalination plants are identified as targets whenever they are linked to the interests of the United States or their allies. Iran claims that the military use of such structures nullifies the protection afforded to civilian sites, effectively erasing the distinction between the two realms. It is a tactic designed to inflict considerable material and reputational damage on the governments of the region.

“Other fronts” and hybrid doctrine
The message also evokes the opening of “other fronts”, threatening the adoption of a widespread war doctrine against “soft” or hybrid targets — digital networks, logistics chains, financial and tourism interests — in order to expand the geography of risk. The declared aim: to make the conflict unpredictable and asymmetric, forcing the United States, Israel, and their partners to grapple with the unsustainable political and economic cost of a potential “long war”.