The unknown
A French plan for peace in Lebanon? Paris denies it and tensions remain high.
Lebanon may recognize Israel in exchange for a non-aggression pact, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and international guarantees.
The French government, according to Axios and Channel 12, has reportedly formulated a proposal to end the war in Lebanon that includes an unprecedented step: the recognition of Israel by Lebanon. Jerusalem and Washington are therefore examining the proposal, which could lead to a historic peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel.
The French Foreign Ministry, however, stated in the evening that there is "no French plan" to attempt to end the war in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed movement Hezbollah. "France has supported the Lebanese authorities' openness to direct talks with Israel and has offered to facilitate them. It will be up to the parties, and only the parties, to define the agenda for these talks," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement sent to Afp.
Previously, President Emmanuel Macron had urged Israel to accept "the Lebanese government's willingness to initiate direct talks", in which "all components of society must be represented", offering to host them in Paris. "I spoke yesterday with President Aoun, Prime Minister Salam, and Parliament Speaker Berri. We must do everything possible to ensure that Lebanon does not plunge into chaos", Macron wrote on X.
The government of Beirut has expressed deep concern in recent days over the resumption of war triggered by Hezbollah's decision to resume attacks on Israeli territory "to avenge the death of the supreme leader Ali Khamenei". Intense raids to which the IDF and Defense Minister Israel Katz have threatened to respond with a full-scale ground operation in Lebanon.
Now, according to sources from Axios and Channel 12, Lebanon would initially declare its willingness to initiate negotiations for a permanent non-aggression pact with Israel.
The final "political declaration" (which is expected to arrive in two months) would include the initial recognition of Israel by Lebanon and should emphasize the Lebanese government's commitment to respect Israel's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Israel and Lebanon will reaffirm their commitment to Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war, and the 2024 ceasefire agreement.
The Lebanese government will commit to preventing attacks against Israel from its territory and to implementing its plan to disarm Hezbollah and prohibit military activity in the country.
The Lebanese army would be redeployed south of the Litani River and the IDF would withdraw within a month from the 5 points taken since the beginning of the war.
UNIFIL forces will verify the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River, while a coalition of countries operating under Security Council mandate will oversee the disarmament of Hezbollah in the rest of the country.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's advisor and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is leading the mediation, and former minister and close associate of Benjamin Netanyahu, Ron Dermer, is expected to represent Israel on behalf of the Prime Minister.
"It is hard to believe that a large-scale ground operation in Lebanon can be prevented, and it seems that in the end it will be the IDF soldiers who will have to carry out the difficult task of disarming Hezbollah," a source close to the dossier said while speaking with Yedioth Ahronot.
For his part, on Friday, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem stated that the group is ready for a long war: "We have prepared for a long confrontation and, God willing, the Israelis will be caught by surprise on the battlefield," he said in his second televised speech since the beginning of the attacks on Israel.
Meanwhile, diplomacy is working frantically, and according to reports, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has already appointed a negotiating team for the talks.