Iran and the 'race' to succeed Khamenei: who they are and why it won't be a smooth transition for the West

The Islamic Republic of Iran is about to undertake the most delicate political act since the death of Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989: choosing the new Supreme Leader in less than 48 hours. The passing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86 years old, who died on February 28, 2026 during a massive joint attack attributed to the United States and Israel, has shaken the foundations of the country. As the seven days of national mourning and the forty days of religious commemoration unfold, Tehran races against time — and against missiles — with a precise goal: to quickly designate a successor to ensure institutional continuity and restore the chain of command amid a devastating military offensive.

In the immediate term, power is entrusted to a Transitional Council provided for by Article 111 of the Constitution, composed of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi. However, the choice of the new Leader falls to the Assembly of Experts, a constitutional body of clerics that today operates literally under crossfire. For the first time in the history of the Iranian theocracy, the succession is in the direct crosshairs of foreign powers. Israeli sources have confirmed attacks on Qom, the holy city of seminaries, and on Tehran, with the declared aim of targeting the Assembly's meeting places and sabotaging the fragile appointment mechanism. The tightening of security measures has imposed dispersed and secret sessions, extending the technical timelines of a process that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hoped to conclude in "one or two days". Further escalating tensions were the words of Donald Trump, who from abroad claims to "have a say" in the succession process and promises an "unconditional surrender" to Tehran: statements read by the Iranian leadership as a serious interference and an act of "psychological warfare".

In the shadow of a system where the Pasdaran and large religious foundations pull decisive strings behind the scenes, three main profiles emerge, despite the absence of official indications: Mojtaba Khamenei, 56 years old, the second son of the deceased Leader and a figure linked to the Pasdaran. He embodies the option of "hard continuity": his eventual appointment would effectively establish a "revolutionary dynasty", contradicting the non-hereditary principle of the Republic. Considered the favorite, he does not, however, garner unanimous support within the clerical establishment; Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, an academic from Qom and a former member of the interim Council. He is perceived as the candidate for "orderly transition": an institutional architect capable of mediating between theological schools and ensuring a phase transition without ruptures; Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri, an ultra-conservative theologian. His rise would give a decisive "ideological relaunch" to the Islamic mission of the State, with an even more rigid regional posture in relation to the USA-Israel axis.

Whoever emerges from the secret conclave of the ayatollahs will not only inherit the supreme spiritual and political authority. They will have to immediately face three colossal dossiers: mending the deep fractures of a society marked by protests and a painful economic crisis; preserving the cohesion of a powerful security apparatus; managing the delicate nuclear program under constant pressure and international scrutiny. Under the bombs and threats, the future of the Middle East is being decided now, in the darkness of bunkers and the tense silence of seminars.