The price of flights skyrockets, airline balances under stress

On the weekend of February 28, 2026, the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran triggered the most severe emergency for civil aviation since the pandemic, imposing closures or severe restrictions on large portions of Middle Eastern airspace. The epicenter of the operational blockade is the Gulf hubs – Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha – intercontinental nodes that until yesterday handled one third of passengers in transit between Europe and Asia. Their paralysis has burned over 10% of the daily international capacity in just a few hours, activating a global domino effect. Thousands of flights have been canceled or forced to take long detours through the Caucasus, Central Asia, or the Red Sea. A striking example is the Singapore-Istanbul route: nearly three and a half hours more of flight, resulting in a surge in fuel consumption and emissions.

For travelers, this means missed connections, forced overnight stays, and systematic overbooking on the corridors still accessible. The hardest hit have been the fares. With reduced capacity and rigid demand, prices have skyrocketed. On the main Europe-Asia routes, flash increases of up to +900% in a single day have been recorded for the last available seats. According to market sources, there have been extreme cases: an economy ticket between London and Singapore jumped to over $8,500 close to departure, compared to a few hundred under normal conditions. Direct repercussions have also been felt in Italy: in the first days of the crisis, about 4% of flights at Fiumicino were canceled, forcing tour operators to make complex rebookings.

Complicating the scenario further is the “second engine” of the crisis: oil. Tensions and potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz – a passageway for one fifth of the world's crude oil – are pushing prices higher. Analysts warn that Brent could soon break the $100 threshold, with extreme scenarios up to 150 in the event of prolonged disruptions. Since jet fuel accounts for an average of 20% to 30% of an airline's operating costs, the impact on fares is almost immediate. Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, has already warned: fare increases will happen soon. In the medium term, on the most exposed routes, a structural price increase of 20-30% is looming.

The economic impact is extremely heavy: between March 1 and 3, the travel sector has accumulated losses of $22.6 billion due to canceled departures, refunds, and damage to the cargo sector. In the immediate term, passengers should prefer alternative routes via Turkey or Central Europe, postpone departures to avoid the most aggressive pricing algorithms, and always choose flexible travel tickets. As long as the Gulf region remains at risk, volatility will continue to dominate the skies of the world.