Trump's threats to the new Supreme Leader in Iran: 'Without our approval, it won't last long...'

President of the United States, Donald Trump, in a crowded press room, has issued a challenge aimed at redrawing the boundaries of Middle Eastern diplomacy: “The new Supreme Leader of Iran must obtain our approval, otherwise it will not last long”. A terse and definitive formula, which admits no nuances and puts Tehran at a crossroads: identify a successor acceptable to the White House or face the continuation of already devastating military, economic, and diplomatic pressure.

The warning comes at the height of an unprecedented crisis. Between the end of February and the early days of March, massive joint airstrikes by the United States and Israel reportedly struck hard at Iranian military capabilities and the chain of command, while international media circulated news about the probable death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in an operation that Tehran has labeled as “state terrorism”.

Meanwhile, in the Iranian capital, the Assembly of Experts — the constitutional body made up of 88 clerics tasked with choosing the successor — is struggling to reorganize, while Trump clarifies that any designation lacking guarantees on the nuclear front will be deemed unacceptable.

The crucial issue remains the atom. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported the impossibility of certifying Iran's enrichment activities due to lack of access to sites. Before the interruption of inspections, estimates indicated stocks of 60% enriched uranium between 440 and 450 kilograms, a dangerously close threshold to the 90% needed for military use.

The U.S. president has firmly reiterated: “I don’t want to find myself in five years with the same problem, worsened”.

From Washington's perspective, the “approval” of the future Supreme Leader equates to the need for a binding political commitment that restores a credible verification and monitoring system, capable of averting a nuclear arms race. While maintaining an uncompromising tone, Trump has hinted at an unexpected strategic pragmatism, suggesting that the most feasible solution might be the rise of “someone from within the regime”.

The stated goal does not seem to be imposing an exiled opposition leader, but rather to foster an internal power balance compatible with Western interests.

The response of the Islamic Republic was immediate. Iranian institutions firmly rejected the idea that Washington could "choose" their leadership, denouncing a persistent destabilization campaign.

Analysts warn that the words of the American president risk becoming a double-edged sword for the internal dynamics of the regime: on one hand, economic and military pressure could push part of the establishment towards a more pragmatic profile to avoid collapse; on the other hand, the manifest interference of the United States could strengthen the "hawks", turning institutional rigidity into a tactical virtue.

The message from Trump has now entered the international agenda: the next Iranian leader will not only have to respond to the Guardian Council that evaluates their candidacy, but will also be assessed by Washington, Brussels, and the Gulf capitals based on their willingness to de-escalate and reopen the nuclear dossier on verifiable terms.