Putin tries to get out of the corner: 'Hormuz will not reopen soon, Russia ready to supply oil and gas to Europe'

The Strait of Hormuz today resembles a vast floating parking lot: dozens of oil tankers are anchored, waiting. Military threats and repeated drone and missile attacks against infrastructure and vessels have prompted many companies to divert or suspend routes, while insurers have withdrawn war risk coverage.

Since March 1, the average of 24 transits per day has reduced to just a few: despite the absence of a formal blockade, the operational standstill effectively amounts to a total closure of the passage.

Markets have reacted with a volatility reminiscent, though not in causes, of the peaks of 2022. On the night of March 8-9, Brent reached intraday highs of $119.5 per barrel, before stabilizing above $100.

Even more concerning is the surge in natural gas: the European TTF nearly touched €70/MWh at the opening, with daily increases ranging between 25% and 30%.

Methane is rising faster than crude oil for purely logistical reasons: while oil can rely on some alternative routes and broader global stocks, LNG is much less flexible.

The tightening in Hormuz isolates the strategic hub of Ras Laffan in Qatar, triggering fierce competition in Asia for the same molecules that Europe had aimed to replace Russian supplies.

The physical fallout from the blockade could become devastating in the short term. As Vladimir Putin warned, production risks “completely stopping within a month.”

With full tanks and no evacuation routes, producers are forced to shut down wells: Iraq and Kuwait are already considering precautionary cuts to avoid storage capacity saturation.

Alternative routes, from the Saudi East-West Pipeline to the Emirates' pipelines, offer a wholly insufficient capacity to compensate for such a large deficit.

In this context, the move by the Kremlin fits in. Moscow has stated it is ready to provide hydrocarbons to Europe to alleviate the crisis, but under two non-negotiable conditions: the signing of long-term contracts and a context "without political pressures".

A request that aims, in essence, to neutralize European sanctions, re-proposing gas as a lever of commercial influence.

For the European Union, the Russian offer is a paradox. Brussels is finalizing a regulatory framework to eliminate energy dependence on Moscow by 2027, with tight deadlines: stop to short-term contracts for LNG by April 25, 2026 and for pipeline gas by June 17.

The Old Continent is caught between three conflicting objectives: defending the purchasing power of families and businesses from rising costs, ensuring supply security in the 2026-27 period, and preserving strategic autonomy from Russia.

The offer from Putin appears calibrated to contain prices, but requires sacrificing a hard-won geopolitical independence. Accepting it would mean reversing a course that has already been set; rejecting it will force Europe to endure months of extreme prices, in the hope that the potential release of strategic reserves under consideration by the G7 will be enough to stem the perfect storm.