Released 400 million barrels to calm the markets, but the Strait of Hormuz remains an unknown

The International Energy Agency has decided to inject 400 million barrels of oil - through the coordinated release of stocks from its member countries - in an attempt to calm the markets, alarmed by a possible escalation of the conflict in the Gulf. It is a unprecedented decision, which clearly illustrates the criticality of the situation. Emmanuel Macron, who as president of the G7 convened leaders via videoconference, including Donald Trump, emphasized the need to “restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible”.

The point, however, is how. Iran seems determined to fight to the end and now, in the strait, even the nightmare of mines is arriving. The French president pointed out that the move by the IEA “corresponds to about 20 days of volumes exported through Hormuz.” In other words, a breath of fresh air but not a solution. Moreover, further intervention appears difficult: IEA members have about 1.2 billion barrels in stock, plus another 600 in mandatory commercial reserves. The markets, it must be said, did not react positively, pricing in more the threats of retaliation from Tehran, both on the front of the region's commercial ports and on crude at 200 dollars. Trump, after the call, promised that there would soon be “huge security” in the area, although, at the moment, no one knows exactly what to expect.

Both the White House occupant and the Élysée occupant have talked about military missions to ensure navigation but, probably, with very different approaches. Trump is thinking of using the US Navy to escort tankers to open conflict - on this point, there has already been a communication incident, with the operation first announced and then denied - while Macron imagines the intervention as soon as the hot phase is over. Timing is a dilemma because, among partners, there is no appetite to be seen by Iran as belligerents, even if it is to protect ships in transit. The French president has therefore organized the discussion around three aspects: getting from Trump “an update” on the situation on the ground, coordination for “the restoration” of freedom of navigation, and “economic coordination”.

"Our goal is to minimize the impact on global security and energy markets," commented the EU leaders, Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, who also participated in the call. Introducing a significant detail. "The implementation of the price cap on oil (the so-called price cap) will help stabilize the markets and limit Russia's revenues: this is not the time to ease sanctions against Moscow." The surge in oil prices is indeed bringing (unexpected) fresh resources into the Kremlin at a time when Ukraine has sent its drone operators to Gulf countries to assist them against Iranian attacks: a contrast that, in Brussels, is hoped will be noticed and on which they intend to capitalize from a diplomatic standpoint (the issue could already end up on the agenda of the Foreign Affairs Council on Monday).

Costa has also flown to Azerbaijan, a country that is now key for Europe's energy diversification thanks to the Tap pipeline.

"With the current volatility, our partnership is more important than ever," Costa said, specifying that a "new framework is being developed to promote closer cooperation between Brussels and Baku. "We plan to increase gas production this year and in 2 or 3 years we will have an additional 10 million cubic meters available for export," assured President Ilham Aliyev, reiterating that there are not only hydrocarbons. "In 5 or 6 years we will have between 6 and 8 gigawatts ready for export from renewable sources," he added. The problem is now.